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Kürzliche Beiträge
19. Februar 2015, 20.00 Uhr:

Die nächste Front im Irak

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Die schiitischen Milizen, die, unterstützt vom Iran, den größten Teil der Bodentruppen im Kampf gegen den Islamischen Staat im Irak stellen, kämpften vergangenes Jahr noch Seite an Seite mit kurdischen Peshmerga der Patriotischen Union Kurdistans, die recht eng mit Teheran verbündet ist.

Nun kommt, was kommen musste. Truppen der kurdischen Regionalregierung im Irak hatten vergangenen Sommer die Kontrolle über Kirkuk übernommen; nun erklären seit einiger Zeit Sprecher schiitischer Milizen, dass sie in Kürze in Kirkuk einmarschieren werden. Das wiederum, drohte Massud Barzani, der kurdische Präsident, werde man nicht zulassen.

Es ist wohl nur eine Frage der Zeit, bis es zu Kämpfen um Kirkuk kommt …., wobei die Jihadisten vom Islamischen Staat und die Regierung in Teheran die lachenden Dritten sein werden.

Dazu schreibt Jesse Rosenfeld:

The increasing split that threatens to turn into open armed conflict between the Shia militias and Kurdish forces is just the kind of thing the shrewd jihadists of ISIS have exploited in the past, moving into vacuums of power created by corruption and infighting among their opponents to built their pop-up empire in Iraq and Syria. And Kirkuk, with its oil, would be a major prize.

18. Februar 2015, 22.54 Uhr:

Erpresser und Partner

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Dass sie vom Iran erpresst wird, gibt die US-Regierung inzwischen ganz offen zu. Der Deal lautet: Wenn Ihr im Nahen Osten nichts macht, was unseren Interessen widerspricht, dann bringen wir, anders als zwischen 2003 und 2011, auch keine amerikanischen Soldaten im Irak um.

U.S. officials have said if the U.S. begins attacking Assad’s forces, the uneasy peace between Iran, an Assad ally, and the U.S. in Iraq will break down and Iranian-backed militias could begin targeting U.S. forces there.

Iranian leaders have told supporters in Iraq not to attack U.S. bases, but that detente could dissolve if the war in Syria expanded to take on Mr. Assad, U.S. officials say.

Also läßt man nicht nur Assad weiter barrel bombs auf Wohngegenden abwerfen und die syrische Armee gemeinsam mit iranischen Revolutionsgardisten und Hizbollah ihre Offensiven in Südsyrien durchführen,man erklärt auch noch, man habe gemeinsame Ziele mit dem Iran:

“Because we have a common enemy, a common goal, everybody is moving in the same direction,” said the senior military official. “You cross a red line in Syria, you start to infringe on what Iran sees as its long-term interest and those Shia militias could turn in the other direction.”

Was genau ist das “common goal"? Die Vernichtung Israels, die Verbreitung der islamischen Revolution oder die Wiedererichtung des persischen Imperiums? Das zumindest ist das erklärte “goal” der Islamischen Republik:

Qassem Suleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, told a rally last week marking the 36th anniversary of the uprising that ushered in theocratic rule: “We are witnessing the export of the Islamic revolution throughout the region, from Bahrain and Iraq to Syria, Yemen and North Africa.”

 

In Syrien jedenfalls hat der Iran, mit dem man die Obama Administration ja glaubt, ein common goal zu teilen, inzwischen das Heft fest in die Hand genommen. Bei der jüngsten Offensive spielen syrische Truppen nur noch die Rolle von Hilfssheriffs:

The FSA were also told that true leadership of engagements and control of joint operations rooms was now the exclusive preserve of the IRGC and Hezbollah — Syrian officers had been completely overruled. The execution of 12 Syrian Army officers had been carried out almost at random to show regime forces their only choice was to obey the Iranian-Lebanese joint operations room. This was done to teach the Syrians they could not retreat or try to stab the foreign forces in the back.

14. Februar 2015, 23.59 Uhr:

Die Strategie gegen den IS funktioniert nicht

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Selbst Kenneth Roth von Human Rights Watch kritisiert inzwischen, dass die westliche Strategie gegen den Islamischen Staat zum Scheitern verurteilt ist, solange sie nicht auch auf Assad, den Iran und die von ihm finanzierten schiitischen Milizen fokussiert:

The US-led campaign against Islamic State isn’t working. It won’t unless it addresses Shia sectarianism in Iraq and Assad’s atrocities in Syria. The extraordinary brutality of the organisation which calls itself Islamic State (IS) has sparked utter revulsion around the world.

Its mass executions, sexual enslavement, videotaped beheadings and now the burning to death of the Jordanian pilot have created an uncommon determination among governments of all political and religious stripes to end this scourge on the people of Iraq and Syria and the threat it poses elsewhere. But after sitting through a weekend of discussions at the Munich Security Conference, I am left with the sad conclusion that the anti-IS endeavour betrays more activity than strategy.

http://m.hrw.org/news/2015/02/10/two-big-holes-strategy-against-isis

13. Februar 2015, 23.17 Uhr:

Palästinesischer Schlüssel für eine bessere Zukunft

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Bassam Eid, eine sicher nicht representative palästinensische Stimme:

After 66 years of mistakes and missed opportunities, it is time for us Palestinians to create the conditions for peace and to work for a better future. It is time we stopped pretending that we can destroy Israel or drive the Jews into the sea. It is time we stopped listening to Muslim radicals or Arab regimes that use us to continue a pointless, destructive, and immoral war with Israel.

In Gaza, our schools are controlled by Muslim fanatics who indoctrinate our children, and Hamas uses our civilians as human shields in a losing battle against Israel. Hamas maintains power through violence, and it ensures that money is spent on its arsenal rather than on making Palestinians’ lives better.

In the West Bank, the only good jobs are with Israeli companies, and the BDS (Boycott, Sanctions, and Divestment) movement is doing its best to take those jobs away from us. Abbas runs a corrupt dictatorship that uses international funds to consolidate its own administration rather than to develop the Palestinian economy. In eastern Jerusalem, the PA is so mistrusted that most Palestinians would prefer to live under Israeli rule rather than under PA rule.

Despite what we tell ourselves, Israel is here to stay. What’s more, it has a right to exist. It is the nation of the Jews, but also a nation for Israeli Arabs who have better lives than Arabs anywhere in Arab countries. The answer is to live in peace and democracy, side by side with Israel.

We know that Israelis want to live in peace, and that the vast majority of Israelis are friendly and neighborly. We have it within our power to transform a long-time enemy into a friend.

http://blogs.timesofisrael.com/we-palestinians-hold-the-key-to-a-better-future/

13. Februar 2015, 10.53 Uhr:

Syrien und die Linke

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Der syrische Oppositionelle  Yassin Al Haj Saleh über Syrien und die westliche Linke:

I am afraid that it is too late for the leftists in the West to express any solidarity with the Syrians in their extremely hard struggle. What I always found astonishing in this regard is that mainstream Western leftists know almost nothing about Syria, its society, its regime, its people, its political economy, its contemporary history. Rarely have I found a useful piece of information or a genuinely creative idea in their analyses. My impression about this curious situation is that they simply do not see us; it is not about us at all. Syria is only an additional occasion for their old anti-imperialist tirades, never the living subject of the debate …

We, rank-and-file Syrians, refugees, women, students, intellectuals, human rights activists, political prisoners … do not exist … But honestly I’ve failed to discern who is right and who is left in the West from a leftist Syrian point of view … Before helping Syrians or showing solidarity with Syrians, the mainstream Western left needs to help themselves. Their views are totally misguided, and the Syrian cause was only a litmus test of their reactionary and decadent perspectives.

http://newpol.org/content/syria-and-left

12. Februar 2015, 22.51 Uhr:

Assad und der Jihadismus; Eine symbiotische Beziehung

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Aus einem Interview mit Michael Weiss und Hassan Hassan, beides Mitarbeiter der Zeitschrift Now Lebanon, die  gerade ein Buch über ISIS publiziert haben:

Assad’s role in suborning and facilitating Al-Qaeda in Iraq is so well-documented that it beggars belief that anyone in Western policy circles could count him a viable or credible counterterrorist. The travel agency for the so-called “rat-lines” of jihadists the regime dispatched into Iraq for nearly a decade was actually located across the street from the US Embassy in Damascus. (…)

Assad hosted Abu Ghadiyeh, a rat-line organizer who was killed by US Special Forces in 2008 in Al-Bukamal, the border town in Syria through which the jihadists poured into Iraq. If you wanted to join the war against the Americans, you flew to Damascus International Airport, linked up with AQI operatives in the capital, and were then ferried to any number of safe houses in the Jazira. (…)

The regime has used Al-Qaeda for years to try and strike a deal with the West: “We can blow you up with these guys, or we can work with you to get rid of them — take your pick.” Ali Mamlouk more or less said this to State Department officials in 2009 when the newly-installed Obama administration was looking to cut all manner of deals with nasty regimes in the region.

Frankly, at this stage, anyone claiming that Assad hasn’t enjoyed a long and destructive relationship with the forbears of ISIS has no business commenting on the subject.

11. Februar 2015, 21.36 Uhr:

Revolutionsgardisten am Golan

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Stolz präsentiert sich Qassim Soilemani, der berüchtige Chef der Revolutionsgardisten diesmal nicht an der Front im Irak, sondern in Südsyrien , wenige Kilometer von der israelischen Grenze entfernt.

Es heißt, er führe die Großoffensivevon Hizbollah und syrischer Armee - in dieser Reihenfolge - gegen die Rebellen an, die in den vergangenen Wochen einige Geländegewinne verbuchen konnten.

Sollte diese Offensive, die offenbar von langer Hand geplant ist, gelingen, wären nicht nur die letzten nahmhaften Einheiten nichjihadistischer bewaffneter Opposition in Syrien zerschlagen, die Hizbollah und iranische Revolutionsgardisten stünden auch am Golan. Wo sie immer schon hinwollten.

Welche Folgen das haben wird, man braucht es nicht weiter zu auszumalen. Dass der Iran jetzt so offen auch in Syrien mitkämpft - während zeitgleich im Yemen die USA ihre Botschaft schließt - ist nur ein weiterer Zeichen, wie selbsticher und siegesgewiss Teheran inzwischen auftritt.

Sage nun bitte niemand, man habe es nicht kommen sehen, man hätte es nicht verhindern können.

Derweil meldet Al Jazeera, Rebellen hätten ihrerseits eine Offensive in Damaskus gestartet:

Zahran Alloush, the commander of the resistance Liwa al-Islam Brigade, has announced on Al Jazeera Arabic that a massive coordinated attack on Assad regime military and security facilities is underway across Damascus, with over 1,000 rockets and mortars targeting the regime’s security headquarters and military bases.

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