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7. September 2015, 23.37 Uhr:

Kurz vor dem Bankrott

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Das Geld fuer Fluechltingshilfe im Nahen Osten geht aus:

The UN’s humanitarian agencies are on the verge of bankruptcy and unable to meet the basic needs of millions of people because of the size of the refugee crisis in the Middle East, Africa and Europe, senior figures within the UN have told the Guardian.

The deteriorating conditions in Lebanon and Jordan, particularly the lack of food and healthcare, have become intolerable for many of the 4 million people who have fled Syria, driving fresh waves of refugees north-west towards Europe and aggravating the current crisis.

Speaking to the Guardian, the UN high commissioner for refugees, António Guterres, said: “If you look at those displaced by conflict per day, in 2010 it was 11,000; last year there were 42,000. This means a dramatic increase in need, from shelter to water and sanitation, food, medical assistance, education.

“The budgets cannot be compared with the growth in need. Our income in 2015 will be around 10% less than in 2014. The global humanitarian community is not broken – as a whole they are more effective than ever before. But we are financially broke.”

7. September 2015, 23.10 Uhr:

Ein Ayatollah gegen den Iran

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Die Massendemonstrationen in Bagdad, bei denen immer lauter nach einem saekularen Staat gerufen wird, sind auch Teil eines innerschiitischen Machtkampfes, in dem Ayatollah al Sistani im irakischen Nadjaf Teheran immer offener die Stirn bietet.

Dazu schreibt die Huffington Post:

Iran has for years exerted tremendous influence over Iraq, turning it into essentially a Shiite-led client state under former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. But a new protest movement in the country’s Shiite-dominated south is a key sign that Tehran’s power is waning, as Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and Maliki’s U.S.-backed successor, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, make forceful moves to reclaim Iraqi independence. (…)

In the Shiite-majority sections of Iraq, however, including Baghdad and the areas to its south and east, a political confrontation with Iran is underway just as the Islamic Republic is engaging the international community like never before through a historic nuclear agreement.

Iraq watchers believe that a popular protest movement calling on Abadi to better handle public services and government corruption is a subtle indication that Iraqis want to beat back Iranian influence in their country.

Und NOW berichtet:

The highly influential Shiite Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has reportedly criticized Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani’s role in Iraqi politics, in a sign of a split between the Shiite religious establishments in Iraq’s Najaf and Iran’s Qom.

Asharq Alawsat reported Monday that Sistani had sent a message to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei questioning him about “Soleimani’s increasing influence in Iraq.”

An unnamed Iraqi politician told the Saudi-daily that Sistani had asked “whether this had happened at Khamenei’s instruction or through Soleimani’s [own independent action.]” (…)

Sistani’s growing frustration over Soleimani’s role in Iraqi politics represents growing differences between the clerical establishments in Iraq’s Najaf and Iran’s Qom, the world’s top two Shiite seminaries.

Asharq Alawsat’s source said Sistani has started to realize that Iran’s intervention in Iraqi politics on behalf of Maliki “has begun to affect [Najaf’s] historic role.”

The source added that Sistani’s action was evidence of “a clear dispute between the Najaf… and Qom Seminaries” in which Sistani and Khamenei are the highest authorities respectively.

4. September 2015, 21.35 Uhr:

Von Bagdad nach Budapest

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Die Bilder duerften bekannt sein. Nur ist nicht mehr das Jahr 2011 und inzwischen Syrien weitgehend zesrtoert, Millionen auf der Flucht. Nun demonstrieren sie wie damals in Deraa, Homs oder Quamishli, nur eben in Budapest:


Und auch in Bagdad fanden heute erneut Massendemonstrationen statt:

4. September 2015, 19.23 Uhr:

Der naechste Brandstifter im Feuerwehrauto

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

In der Achse des Widerstandes, das muss man ihnen lassen, reden sie alle Klartext. Ob der Iran oder Assad:

“We have strong confidence in the Russians, as they have proven throughout this crisis, for four years, that they are sincere and transparent in their relationship with us,” Assad said in what was rare television interview. “They are principled,” he said, while “the United States abandons its allies, abandons its friends.”

Seit einigen Tagen nun mehren sich die Berichte, dass die russische Unterstuetzung des syrischen Regimes enorm intensiviert wurde. Ob diese Meldungen, die vor allem staatliche syrische Medien lancieren, stimmen oder nicht, wurde nun auch das Weisse Haus gefragt.

Und antwortete:

“We are aware of reports that Russia may have deployed military personnel and aircraft to Syria, and we are monitoring those reports quite closely,” said spokesman Josh Earnest.

“Any military support to the Assad regime for any purpose, whether it’s in the form of military personnel, aircraft supplies, weapons, or funding, is both destabilizing and counterproductive.

Heisst uebersetzt in jenen Klartext, den man anderswo spricht: Die USA werden einmal mehr nichts unternehmen, wie generell, wenn es im Nahen Osten den Iran und/ oder Russland veraergern koennte. In der Washington Post erklaert Michael Gerson es noch einmal:

What explains Obama’s high tolerance for humiliation and mass atrocities in Syria? The Syrian regime is Iran’s proxy, propped up by billions of dollars each year. And Obama wanted nothing to interfere with the prospects for a nuclear deal with Iran. He was, as Hof has said, “reluctant to offend the Iranians at this critical juncture.” So the effective concession of Syria as an Iranian zone of influence is just one more cost of the president’s legacy nuclear agreement.

Aber das Weisse Haus geht sogar einen Schritt weiter. Wenn Russland ISIS bekaempfen wuerde, ja dann waere so eine Unterstuetzung sogar willkommen:

The White House said, however, that it would welcome Russia’s involvement in an international coalition that is battling IS in Iraq and Syria.

Sie bekaempfen ISIS jetzt schon mit dem Iran und Erdogan. Das funktioniert wunderbar, gerade hat der Islamische Staat wieder einige Offensiven gestartet und bedroht Damaksus ebenso wie Quamishli. Nun laedt man also den dritten Brandstifter ins Feuerwehrauto.

Der aber ziert sich noch:

Asked whether Russia could take part in operations against ISIL, Putin said: “We are looking at various options but so far what you are talking about is not on the agenda.”

“To say we’re ready to do this today – so far it’s premature to talk about this. But we are already giving Syria quite serious help with equipment and training soldiers, with our weapons,” RIA Novosti state news agency quoted Putin as saying.

3. September 2015, 23.23 Uhr:

Alles bekommen, nichts geben

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Auch dem Iran unterlaufen Fehler. Da wurde ein Dokument kurz online publiziert, das eigentlich nur zur internen Verwendung bestimmt war:

Details of the nuclear talks between Iran and the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany have been made public thanks to Abbas Araghchi, an Iranian deputy nuclear negotiator - much to Araghchi’s dismay. The website of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, or IRIB, accidentally published the minutes of an off-the-record briefing with Araghchi on Aug. 5. The transcript was removed within hours after Araghchi voiced his anger, but the damage had been done.

Und was Herr Araghchi da so erzaehlt,  hat es in sich:

Confirming this is Araghchi’s statement that U.S. Secretary of State Kerry agreed not only to give Iran the right to enrich and move its nuclear program forward, but also to grant official recognition of even the commercial and industrial aspects of the program. Araghchi said this means that the Iranian nuclear program has been certified in its entirety.

Araghchi expanded on this point by quoting Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Rybakov, who headed the Russian negotiating team. Reportedly, Rybakov said:

“I was telling my associates last night that these Iranians are truly geniuses. They came to get a green light for their enrichment program from the Security Council in exchange for what? In exchange for their sanctions to be lifted. Not only do they not give anything in exchange, but they receive something in exchange for what they receive! Their sanctions will be lifted and their enrichment will continue.”

Der Deal  wurde nun auch in Washington von den Demokraten durchgewunken, einmal mehr erklaerte die iranische Seite, dass die Vernichtung Israels und die Unterstuetzung der Achse des Widerstandes natuerlich auch kuenftig oberste Prioritaet habe. Es bleibt also nur noch eine  Hoffnung. Dass der oberste Revolutionsfuehrer ganz prinzipienfest ablehnt:

By approving the nuclear deal, Khamenei would be seen by his fellow revolutionaries as embracing the Islamic Republic’s implacable foe, while a majority of Obama’s own legislature repudiates the JCPOA. One would think that such a decision would shake the very ideological foundation of the 1979 Islamic Revolution to which Khamenei and his radical followers are devoted. Hence, there may still be hope for the majority in the U.S. Congress who oppose the fatally flawed nuclear deal: Perhaps the Supreme Leader will decide that he cannot turn his back on the Islamic Revolution by implementing the JCPOA.

2. September 2015, 23.06 Uhr:

Deal done

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Das war es dann. Bleibt nur noch die IAF.

Senator Barbara Mikulski of Maryland on Wednesday came out in support of President Obama’s Iran nuclear accord, the 34th Democrat in favor. Her decision gives Mr. Obama the votes needed to assure the deal will survive a congressional challenge.

Ms. Mikulski’s decision came a day after Senators Chris Coons of Delaware and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania also announced they would support the deal. With 34 senators favoring the accord between Iran and six world powers limiting the country’s nuclear program, opponents may still be able to pass a resolution disapproving the deal later this month, but they do not have the votes to override Mr. Obama’s promised veto.

Dazu der Kommentar aus einem Talkback:

This is the worst blunder since Neville Chamberlain signed the deal with Adolf Hitler in 1938 in Munich Germany that lead to World War II in Europe, maybe the worst deal ever signed by anyone.

2. September 2015, 22.30 Uhr:

Der naechste Gifgtgaseinsatz

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Und nun also auch der islamische Staat, war auch nur eine Frage der Zeit:

The 21 August attack left as many as 25 people in the northern Syrian village of Marea contaminated by a substance that has since been confirmed as mustard gas, a chemical weapon banned under the 1925 Geneva protocol.

The gas was loaded into artillery shells and fired from about 8km away, from an area controlled by Islamic State. The attack marked the second time that Isis is believed to have used the outlawed substance and is being seen in the opposition-held north and in Turkey as a serious escalation in the civil war.

In late August Kurdish troops in neighbouring Iraq were also affected by mustard gas, a substance first used in the first world war, and sporadically in wars across the world in the century since.

Isis is thought to have fired 59 shells on Marea, a small village near the Turkish border town of Killis that stands between their current frontline and apparent goal of Azaa, a large border post 10 miles further west. The extremists have twice tried to storm Marea and been pushed back by rebel groups who chased them from the area 18 months ago.

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