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11. Oktober 2015, 22.33 Uhr:

Der Ein-Mann-Deal mit dem Iran

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Der Iran Deal, das ist so eine Willenserklärung, und, wie Amir Taheri ausführt, betrachtet Obama sie auch als bindend. Nur steht er damit völlig alleine da. Nicht nur die Iraner, auch die Russen, Chinesen und Europäer haben es nie für nötig befunden, irgend ein Stück Papier zu unterzeichen. Stattdessen heben sie die Sanktionen auf, auch wenn der Iran bislang keinerlei Bereitschaft signalisiert, den Deal umsetzen zu wollen:

Aas things now stand, Obama may end up being the only person in the world to sign his much-wanted deal, in effect making a treaty with himself.

The Iranians have signed nothing and have no plans for doing so. The so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has not even been discussed at the Islamic Republic’s Council of Ministers. Nor has the Tehran government bothered to even provide an official Persian translation of the 159-page text.

The Islamic Majlis, the ersatz parliament, is examining an unofficial text and is due to express its views at an unspecified date in a document “running into more than 1,000 pages,” according to Mohsen Zakani, who heads the “examining committee.”

“The changes we seek would require substantial rewriting of the text,” he adds enigmatically.

Nor have Britain, China, Germany, France and Russia, who were involved in the so-called P5+1 talks that produced the JCPOA, deemed it necessary to provide the Obama “deal” with any legal basis of their own. Obama’s partners have simply decided that the deal he is promoting is really about lifting sanctions against Iran and nothing else.

So they have started doing just that without bothering about JCPOA’s other provisions. Britain has lifted the ban on 22 Iranian banks and companies blacklisted because of alleged involvement in deals linked to the nuclear issue.

German trade with Iran has risen by 33 percent, making it the Islamic Republic’s third-largest partner after China.

China has signed preliminary accords to help Iran build five more nuclear reactors. Russia has started delivering S300 anti-aircraft missile systems and is engaged in talks to sell Sukhoi planes to the Islamic Republic.

France has sent its foreign minister and a 100-man delegation to negotiate big business deals, including projects to double Iran’s crude oil exports.

Other nations have also interpreted JCPOA as a green light for dropping sanctions.

Und Reuters meldet passend, der Iran habe gerade eine Langstreckenrakete getestet:

Iran tested a new precision-guided ballistic missile on Sunday in defiance of a United Nations ban, signaling an apparent advance in Iranian attempts to improve the accuracy of its missile arsenal. (…)

State television showed what appeared to be a successful launch of the new missile, named Emad, which will be Iran’s first precision-guided weapon with the range to strike its regional arch-enemy Israel. (…)

The United Nations also prohibits Iran from undertaking any activity related to ballistic missiles that could deliver a nuclear warhead, which applies to the Emad, but Iranian officials have pledged to ignore the ban.

“We don’t ask permission from anyone to strengthen our defense and missile capabilities,” Dehghan said.

11. Oktober 2015, 01.12 Uhr:

Ankara, 10.10.2015

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Laut aktuellen Angaben der HDP-Krisenkoordination sollen bei dem schlimmsten Terroranschlag der türkischen Geschichte 128 Menschen getötet und weitere 516 verletzt worden sein.

10. Oktober 2015, 13.01 Uhr:

'The Committee got it right'

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Das Wall Street Journal über die Verleihung des diesjährigen Friedensnobelpreis:

The list of undeserving and sometimes repugnant Nobel Peace Prize winners is long. But this year the Norwegian Committee got it right by selecting civil-society activists who played a pivotal role in Tunisia’s transition to democracy.

Known as the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet, the group united business leaders, labor-union organizers, lawyers and human-rights activists to promote reconciliation and pluralism when the divide between Islamists and secularists could have ripped apart the North African country.

Tunisians in early 2011 overthrew the corrupt regime of Zine al-Abidine Ben-Ali, and their success set off a wave of uprisings across the Arab world. The result throughout the region has largely been chaos and repression, and Tunisia might have gone down the same road. Elections for a constitutional assembly and transitional government were held, but simmering tensions repeatedly boiled over, threatening the constitutional drafting process by 2013.

That’s when the Quartet came together to urge Tunisia’s divided factions to stick with the democratic process. Ennahda, the mainstream Islamic party, agreed to omit any reference to Shariah law in the constitution. The resulting document, ratified in 2014, declares Tunisia to be “a civil state based on citizenship, the will of the people and the supremacy of the law.” Late last year, after parliamentary and presidential elections, Ennahda peacefully handed power to the secular Voice of Tunisia party—a remarkable and tragically rare feat for Arab lands.

Tunisia’s democracy is fragile. Islamic State and other jihadist elements are a serious menace, as seen by the massacre in March at the Bardo National Museum in Tunis that killed 22. But the country remains the sole bright spot to emerge from the Arab Spring, and voices of democratic compromise such as the Quartet deserve credit. So do the Tunisian people.

10. Oktober 2015, 00.29 Uhr:

Der IS auf dem Vormarsch ... dank russischer Luftunterstützung

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Neues vom russisch geführten War on Terror:

The terror group ISIS made gains near Syria’s largest city in the last 24 hours, indirectly aided by Russian airstrikes that drove other groups out.

ISIS militants seized five villages on the northern edge of Aleppo, putting them within 1 mile of territory held by the Syrian regime, Reuters reports.

Russian airstrikes in the area reportedly killed hundreds of anti-regime rebels, many of whom ISIS (also known as the Islamic State, ISIL, and Daesh) was also fighting.

“Daesh has exploited the Russian air strikes and the preoccupation of the (rebel) Free Syrian Army in its battles in Hama, and advanced in Aleppo," one rebel commander told Reuters.

Hassan Hassan, an expert on Syria who recently coauthored the book “ISIS: Insider the Army of Terror,” told Business Insider that ISIS’ gains near Aleppo are a “big win.”

“I’m sure ISIS has sleeper cells in Aleppo,” Hassan said. “If they pushed, if they held their ground then that would be … a big win for them.

“They could actually establish a foothold inside Aleppo, and it also helps them to make more progress in Hama,” another key city in western Syria.

Und worum es Putin geht, wenn er die Rebellen bekämpft und den IS in Ruhe lässt? Dass Assad, der nur noch dank des Iran und Russlands am Ruder ist, als das kleinere Übel erscheint. Und dafür wird der IS ganz dringend gebraucht, denn ohne IS wäre Assad ja nicht mehr das kleinere Übel:

Russia’s intervention is lending credence to what is widely believed to be Mr. Assad’s ultimate aim: Leave only one opponent in the multisided war—Islamic State—and force the West to choose between the extremist group and his regime.

9. Oktober 2015, 14.02 Uhr:

Ende des Ausbildungsprogramms

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Die US-Administration zieht Konsequenzen:

The Obama administration has ended the Pentagon’s $500 million program to train and equip Syrian rebels, administration officials said on Friday, in an acknowledgment that the beleaguered program had failed to produce any kind of ground combat forces capable of taking on the Islamic State in Syria.

Pentagon officials were expected to officially announce the end of the program on Friday, as Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter leaves London after meetings with his British counterpart, Michael Fallon, about the continuing wars in Syria and Iraq.

A senior Defense Department official, who was not authorized to speak publicly and who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that there would no longer be any more recruiting of so-called moderate Syrian rebels to go through training programs in Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. Instead, a much smaller training center would be set up in Turkey, where a small group of “enablers” — mostly leaders of opposition groups — would be taught operational maneuvers like how to call in airstrikes.

8. Oktober 2015, 19.00 Uhr:

Es gibt sie noch, die Arabische Liga

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Seit Tagen finden überall in Israel gezielte Angriffe mit Messern auf Juden statt, schon ist von einer neuen Al Aqsa Intifada die Rede.

Und wer meldet sich da zu Wort? Die Arabische Liga. ja, es gibt sie noch und ihr Statement klingt, als sei im Nahen Osten sonst gar nichts passiert, sozusagen alles beim Alten geblieben:

Arab League chief Nabil al-Arabi has condemned what he is branding Israel’s “racist and aggressive” practices toward the Palestinians and is urging the United Nations and international community to intervene.

“The international community and the United Nations must take up their responsibilities in countering the aggressive and racist Israeli practices towards the Palestinian people,” Arabi says.

“The continuing escalation of attacks on the Palestinian people by the Israeli occupation authorities and settlers threaten to exacerbate the situation in the entire region as the international community remains silent to these crimes.”

8. Oktober 2015, 15.27 Uhr:

Kampf mit dem IS oder gegen ihn?

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Dass Assads Airforce des öfteren schon als Luftwaffe des Islamischen Staates fungierte, statt ihn zu bekämpfen, ist ein offenes Geheimnis.

Nun scheinen es auch die Russen, deren Luftangriffe bislang allen möglichen Zielen, nur nicht dem IS galten, ebenso zu halten, wie aus Aleppo gemeldet wird:

On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fighter jets rocketed an ammunition storehouse, destroying artillery, armored personnel carriers and even tanks belonging to Liwa Suqour al-Jabal, or The Mountain Eagles, a U.S.-backed brigade of the Free Syrian Army. A video uploaded by the brigade to YouTube shows the burning wreckage of the Russian airstrike, in Mansoura, in the western suburbs of Aleppo, as the local commander known as Abu Mohammed taunts his enemy: “Thank God, we are all fine,” says Abu Mohammed. “We don’t fear Russia or anyone helping the Russians. Bashar, we will remain resistant fighting you even without any ammunition or bullets. We will fight you with knives. We don’t need ammunition, Allahu Akhbar.”

The cameraman then adds that the Russians weren’t the only ones hitting the brigade yesterday. “The Russian airplanes are targeting Suqour al-Jabal’s weapon depots in Aleppo and ISIS attacked the bases with explosives at the same time.”

Hasan Hagali, the top commander for Suqour al-Jabal and a former captain in the Syrian Arab Army, explained via Skype to The Daily Beast: “Yesterday, at 5:30 p.m. a base belonging to Suqour al-Jabal was targeted in two air raids in Mansoura. In each raid, there were three Russian Mig-31 jets. That’s our main arms depot, where we supply all our units. At the same exact time—5:30 p.m.—ISIS sent a car bomb against us in Deir Jemal, against our base. This is about 130 kilometers away from Mansoura.” An earlier ISIS attack against a Suqour al-Jabal frontline position, he added, occurred in Ehres, also in western Aleppo, at around 3 o’clock. But ISIS locations in the province, no doubt equally visible from the air, were left unscathed by the Russians.

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