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2. November 2014, 11.36 Uhr:

Es kaum abwarten können

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

In Europa und den USA können sie es kaum abwarten:

According to The Wall Street Journal, the three companies have already entered preliminary talks for offering iPhones and spare parts in Iran. American companies have not been officially part of the Iranian market since the 1979 hostage crisis.

The recent talks between Iran and the 5+1, which have also entailed direct talks with U.S. officials, are opening new doors for these companies, and they appear more than ready to use them.

Boeing has announced that it has already entered into agreements with Iran for the sale of airplane spare parts, which is their first official agreement since 1979.

Boeing and GE have been allowed by special permission from the U.S. Treasury to enter into agreements with Iran for the sale of spare parts. That permission came after an interim deal was reached between Iran and the 5+1 last November in Geneva.

2. November 2014, 01.17 Uhr:

Grund zur Freude

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Hussein Ibish über die Wahlen in Tunesien:

At a time when Arabs and Middle East watchers are desperately in need of some good news, the Tunisian election is, thankfully, providing a bumper crop. The trend in much of the rest of the region is bad in several cases, desperately so. But Tunisia is demonstrating, along several crucial axes, how Arab societies can, indeed, move forward in a positive direction and a constructive manner. (…)

But there isn’t anything unique in Tunisia that sets it apart from all other Arab states, including its proximity to Europe; decades of progressive, secular dictatorship; and relative homogeneity and prosperity. These factors are often cited to explain Tunisian exceptionalism.

There isn’t any reason particularly to believe in Tunisian exceptionalism though. True enough, Tunisians have continued to show the way forward, and this election is perhaps the biggest single expression of that regional moral and political leadership the country has developed. And, true enough, that all Arab states have unique features that set them apart from all the others.

But if Tunisians can achieve this kind of political accomplishment, which is routine in much of the world but unheard of and indeed revolutionary in the Arab world, why not see it as a bellwether for the future of the region? Why on earth would anyone want to (and it is a choice) assume that Tunisia is uniquely able to construct a democracy while the rest of the Arab world is consigned to long-term, or even permanent, incapability? It’s at least as plausible that Tunisia is demonstrating how democracy really works in the Arab world, and that this example will be followed, with modifications, elsewhere, given time.

After a summer of ISIS, the Gaza war, the further collapse of Libya and Yemen into chaos, and so many other regional nightmares, it would be both irrational and foolish not to embrace Tunisia’s accomplishment as at least as much of a representative of the Arab present, and the potential Arab future, as any of these nightmares.

1. November 2014, 19.58 Uhr:

Kein Plan, keine Strategie, keine Vision, aber ganz viel Mikromanagement

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Wie die Obama Administration ihren Krieg gegen den IS führt, beschreibt Daily Beast in einem erhellenden Artikel, der alles bestätigt, was man seit August befürchtet hat: Dass es nämlich weder einen Plan, noch eine Strategie noch eine Vision gibt, weshalb inzwischen nicht nur hochrangige Militärs, sondern selbst der Chef des Pentagons das Weiße Haus ganz offen kritisieren.

Derweil rückt im Irak der IS weiter vor und in Idlib in Syrien, liefern sich Einheiten der FSA schwere Gefechte mit dem Islamischen Staat und der Al Nusra Front - ohne dass sie irgendwelche Unterstützung erhielten. Ganz scheint es, eine einzige Regel dominiere, ja nichts zu unternehmen, das den Iran verärgern könnte, denn, wie Lee Smith treffend schreibt, die Nahoststrategie des Weißen Hauses  laute “détente with Iran and a cold war with Israel".

“We are getting a lot of micromanagement from the White House. Basic decisions that should take hours are taking days sometimes,” one senior defense official told The Daily Beast.

Other gripes among the top Pentagon and military brass are about the White House’s decision not to work with what’s left of the existing Syrian moderate opposition on the ground, which prevents intelligence sharing on fighting ISIS and prevents the military from using trained fighters to build the new rebel army that President Obama has said is needed to push Syrian President Bashar al-Assad into a political negotiation to end the conflict.

The New York Times reported Wednesday that Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel himself is among the critics of Obama’s strategy in Syria. Hagel wrote a memo last week to Rice warning that Obama’s Syria strategy was unclear about U.S. intentions with respect to Assad, undermining the plan. (…)

Many military officials, including at CENTCOM’s headquarters in Tampa and its air base in Qatar, from which the ISIS air campaign is run, are barred even from communicating with Syrian opposition representatives unless those rebels are on a White House/State Department approved list. Many Syrian opposition leaders complain that Free Syrian Army brigades fighting ISIS now are offering help in making the strikes against ISIS effective but are getting no response from the administration.

The international coalition against ISIS, led on the U.S. side by retired Gen. John Allen and State Department official Brett McGurk, is working with Sunni tribes in Iraq to coordinate against ISIS. But it is not working with the corresponding tribes on the Syrian side of the mostly nonexistent Iraq-Syria border. ISIS has slaughtered hundreds of these tribesmen in eastern Syria who refused to yield to the group’s demands.

Meanwhile, the Free Syrian Army, largely written off by the White House, has been suffering heavy losses to ISIS as well as to the al Qaeda-affiliated al-Nusra Front, which has opened up a third fighting front against the FSA in Idlib and other cities. FSA brigades that have been vetted by the U.S. government, including the Syrian Revolutionaries Front and Harakat Hazm, have seen their non-aggression pact with al-Nusra disappear. (…)

Secretary of State John Kerry said Thursday that there is no military solution to the Syria crisis and said the U.S. is reaching out to Russia and Iran, among others, to seek a new political negotiation. Syrian National Coalition President Hadi al Bahra told The Daily Beast last month that there is no genuine interest in a new political process in the West, which he described as being “in a coma.”

“There have been so many things said on Syria that were not delivered,” said Andrew Tabler, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Nobody thinks the president really wants to do anything on Syria. Even currently serving officials realize that you cannot bomb your way out of this and you need to have a plan for a political solution, but we don’t have it. There needs to be a fully thought out strategy with a political dimension that involves the opposition. If you don’t do that, you can’t solve this problem.”

1. November 2014, 00.46 Uhr:


von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Die Wahlergebnisse in Tunesien stehen jetzt fest:

Secular party Nidaa Tounes has been officially declared the leader in Tunisia’s legislative elections after the High Independent Authority for Elections’ full release of the vote figures early Thursday morning. With 85 seats in the National Constituent Assembly, Nidaa’s victory marks the first time a party with a secularist platform has been democratically elected to power.

Islamist party Ennahdha, who claimed a sweeping 89-seat majority in Tunisia’s first democratic elections in 2011, was widely predicted to take the lead in the 217-seat assembly this year. The party finished with 65 seats this year, or 31.79%, compared to Nidaa Tounes’s 39.17%. Nidaa’s success comes as a surprise to many, although early indicators of the upset win have long manifested themselves in slashed approval ratings for Ennahdha.

Following the two leading parties in the NCA are millionaire Slim Riahi’s Free Patriotic Union (UPL) with 16 seats, the leftist Popular Front with 15 seats, Afek Tounes with 8 seats, and a combination of other parties comprising 24 seats.


31. Oktober 2014, 14.41 Uhr:

'Das syrische Regime profitiert'

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Der US-Verteidigungsminister spricht:

Chuck Hagel on Thursday acknowledged the Syrian regime is benefiting from U.S.-led airstrikes targeting Islamic State militants in Syria, however he noted the United States is pursuing a long-term strategy in the region.

Und die “benefits” sehen unter anderem so aus:

Bombing runs by the Syrian air force over the past 10 days have killed at least 221 civilians, a third of them children, a group monitoring Syria’s civil war said on Thursday.

The intensifying offensive by President Bashar al-Assad’s forces has heightened concerns among his opponents that he may be taking advantage of U.S.-led air raids on Islamic State insurgents to regain territory elsewhere in the country.

Since Oct. 20 the Syrian military has staged at least 769 attacks including barrel bombings in many areas of Syria, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, and more than 500 people have been wounded.

It said the strikes targeted the eastern province of Deir al-Zor, Homs in central Syria as well as contested provinces in the more populated west such as Latakia, Quneitra, Hama, Aleppo, Idlib and Deraa, as well as the fringes of Damascus.

30. Oktober 2014, 18.42 Uhr:

Internationale Angelegenheit

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Der Islamische Staat ist in der Tat eine ganz internationale Angelegenheit der Umma, fast möchte man schon von einem Einwanderungsland sprechen. Sie strömen und strömen ins Kalifat, die Kämpfer, aus allen Himmelsrichtungen und  können sich dort dann auch noch auf die guten und verdienten Dienste ehemaliger baathistischer Offiziere und Geheimdienstler verlassen:

“The rate of travel into Syria [by foreign fighters] is greater than we saw into Afghanistan prior to 9/11,” Randy Blake, a senior strategic advisor in the U.S. Office of Director of National Intelligence, said Tuesday during a panel at the annual International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP) conference in Orlando, Florida. “It’s greater than anything we’ve seen into Afghanistan, into Yemen, into Somalia, into Iraq, or anything that we’ve seen in the last 10-year period.” ‘

Blake said the number of Westerners heading to Syria to fight has risen so rapidly in recent weeks that a new law enforcement video shown at the four-day event is already out of date.

“The video said there are somewhere around 12,000 foreign fighters in Syria. We would update that number to about 16,000 foreign fighters who have traveled to Syria from over 80 countries,” Blake said, adding that roughly 2,000 of those fighters hail from Western countries – including “at least 500 from the U.K, 700 from France, 400 from Germany, and more than 100 Americans [who] have traveled, or tried to travel into Syria.”’

29. Oktober 2014, 00.02 Uhr:

Islamisten Wahlverlierer

von Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Über die Wahlen in Tunesien:

Tunisia’s Ennahda party, the first Islamist movement to secure power after the 2011 Arab spring revolts, has conceded defeat in elections that are expected to make its main secular rival the strongest force in parliament.

Official results from Sunday’s elections – the second parliamentary vote since Tunisians set off uprisings across much of the Arab world by overthrowing autocrat Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali – are still to be announced.

But a senior official at Ennahda, which ruled in a coalition until it was forced to make way for a caretaker government during a political crisis at the start of this year, acknowledged defeat by the secular Nidaa Tounes party.

“We have accepted this result and congratulate the winner,” Lotfi Zitoun, an Ennahda party official, told Reuters.

Zitoun said the party reiterated its call for a unity government, including Ennahda, in the interest of the country.

Earlier, an Ennahda source said preliminary tallies showed Nidaa Tounes had won 80 seats in the 217-member assembly, ahead of 67 secured by Ennahda. The Nidaa Tounes leader, Beji Caid Essebsi, had already said on Sunday night that there were “positive indications” his party was ahead.

Defeat is a huge setback for the Islamists of Ennahda, who headed a coalition government with two non-religious partners for more than two years after winning the election for the constituent assembly (the precursor to the new parliament) in October 2011.

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